{"id":47225,"date":"2025-01-21T05:01:30","date_gmt":"2025-01-20T21:01:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.danran1967.com\/?p=47225"},"modified":"2025-01-21T05:01:30","modified_gmt":"2025-01-20T21:01:30","slug":"%e5%8d%8e%e7%9b%9b%e9%a1%bf%e9%82%ae%e6%8a%a5%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e6%b0%b8%e8%bf%9c%e4%b8%8d%e4%bc%9a%e6%9c%89%e9%ab%98%e9%93%81%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.danran1967.com\/?p=47225","title":{"rendered":"\u534e\u76db\u987f\u90ae\u62a5\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709\u9ad8\u94c1\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Why the United States Will Never Have High-Speed Rail \u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709\u9ad8\u94c1<\/strong><\/p>\n

Megan McArdle \u6885\u7518\u00b7\u9ea6\u5361\u5fb7\u5c14<\/strong><\/p>\n

California likes to think of itself as the state where the future happens\uff0c and in 2008\uff0c its voters decided the future was high-speed rail. In November of that year\uff0c they approved a $9 billion bond issue to begin one of the most ambitious government infrastructure projects in U.S. history\uff1a a bullet train connecting San Francisco and Los Angeles\uff0c at a cost of $33 billion.<\/p>\n

For years\uff0c the optimists have spun starry visions of millions of Californians traveling quickly\uff0c comfortably and environmentally consciously between the state’s two major population centers. The pessimists\uff0c meanwhile\uff0c have grimly watched the projected costs mount. At last count\uff0c the estimates had traveled northward of $75 billion\uff0c and for all anyone could tell\uff0c were still climbing.<\/p>\n

On Tuesday\uff0c during his first State of the State speech\uff0c Gov. Gavin Newsom \uff08D\uff09 called for the state to scale back the project to a less costly leg that would run through the Central Valley. California voters can stop clutching their wallets. But voters elsewhere should pay close attention\uff0c because what happened in California illustrates the perils that face any U.S. rail project\uff0c or for that matter\uff0c any project at all that tries to meaningfully reshape U.S. infrastructure.<\/p>\n

Almost anyone who travels abroad comes back wondering why every other country in the world seems to have cheap\uff0c speedy rail travel while Americans can barely go out for a cup of coffee without enduring either the tedium of an endless road-trip or the indignities of the TSA. Sadly\uff0c there is no one reason; rather\uff0c there are many reasons\uff0c all of them hard-to-impossible to fix.<\/p>\n

Distance. In other places of the world\uff0c major population centers are much closer to each other. And big cities that are reasonably close together is pretty much a prerequisite for high-speed rail\uff0c which is why they have it and we don’t. Imagine what it would take to build a line from New York City to Los Angeles \u2014 or to Chicago\uff0c Houston or Phoenix.<\/p>\n

Wealth. Of course\uff0c the United States does have a few clusters that look ripe for rail. And instead of high-speed rail between these cities\uff0c we have the Acela\uff0c which takes eight hours to travel from Washington to Boston and shakes like a maraca player. Why haven’t we built something better\uff1f Because truly high-speed rail needs to travel in a fairly straight line; you don’t want to be taking a sharp curve at 300 miles per hour. Building newer\uff0c better\uff0c straighter rail lines would require the government to buy all the land between Point A and Point B and tear down anything that happened to be in the way. Because we’re already really\uff0c really rich\uff0c what’s between Point A and Point B is no longer farmland; instead we have a great deal of highly valuable real estate that will be very expensive to purchase.<\/p>\n

Legal Proceduralism. For historical reasons\uff0c the U.S. legal system offers citizens an unparalleled number of veto points at which they can attempt to block government projects. Any infrastructure project bigger than painting a schoolhouse thus has to either fight out the reviews and court cases for years\uff0c or buy off the opponents\uff0c or more likely\uff0c both.<\/p>\n

Cost. U.S. infrastructure projects cost way more to build than they do everywhere else. The right likes to blame unions; the left likes to blame pricey consultants. But they’re all arguing about the symptom rather than the disease.<\/p>\n

California displays all these pathologies with a vengeance. The part of the rail line that was reasonably cheap to build didn’t go anywhere near where the people were; it ran through the Central Valley where land was reasonably cheap and the lobbies were relatively few. The parts of the line that were actually useful \u2014 the endpoints \u2014 promised endless legal and political headaches and astronomical costs. And those two endpoints were 400 miles apart \u2014 too far\uff0c in the end\uff0c to be reached.<\/p>\n

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\u3010\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7a0b\u5e8f\u4e3b\u4e49\u3011 \u7531\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u4f53\u7cfb\u5411\u516c\u6c11\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6570\u91cf\u7edd\u65e0\u4ec5\u6709\u3001\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u963b\u6320\u653f\u5e9c\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u5426\u51b3\u70b9\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u6bd4\u7c89\u5237\u6821\u820d\u66f4\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u9879\u76ee\u90fd\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u901a\u8fc7\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u548c\u6cd5\u5ead\u8bc9\u8bbc\u4e89\u51fa\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u82b1\u94b1\u6536\u4e70\u53cd\u5bf9\u8005\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53cc\u7ba1\u9f50\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3010\u6210\u672c\u3011 \u7f8e\u56fd\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u5efa\u8bbe\u6210\u672c\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u4efb\u4f55\u5730\u65b9\u90fd\u9ad8\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u53f3\u6d3e\u559c\u6b22\u6307\u8d23\u5de5\u4f1a\uff1b\u201c\u5de6\u6d3e\u201d\u559c\u6b22\u6307\u8d23\u8981\u4ef7\u8fc7\u9ad8\u7684\u987e\u95ee\u3002\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u90fd\u5728\u4e89\u8bba\u75c7\u72b6\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u75c7\u7ed3\u3002<\/p>\n

\u52a0\u5dde\u5f7b\u5e95\u5c55\u73b0\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u75c5\u72b6\u3002\u4ee5\u8f83\u4f4e\u5ec9\u6210\u672c\u4fee\u5efa\u7684\u90a3\u90e8\u5206\u94c1\u8def\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u9760\u8fd1\u4eba\u4eec\u6240\u5728\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7a7f\u8fc7\u5730\u4ef7\u8f83\u4f4e\u5ec9\u3001\u6e38\u8bf4\u56e2\u4f53\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5c11\u7684\u4e2d\u592e\u8c37\u5730\u3002\u8fd9\u6761\u8def\u7ebf\u4e2d\u771f\u6b63\u6709\u7528\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u2014\u2014\u7ec8\u70b9\u2014\u2014\u9884\u793a\u7740\u65e0\u4f11\u6b62\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u96be\u9898\u4ee5\u53ca\u5de8\u989d\u6210\u672c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u7ec8\u70b9\u76f8\u8ddd400\u82f1\u91cc\u2014\u2014\u8bf4\u5230\u5e95\u592a\u8fdc\u4e86\uff0c\u6ca1\u6cd5\u8fde\u63a5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5ef6\u4f38\u9605\u8bfb\uff1a<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

\u5f97\u5230\u4fdd\u7559\u7684\u53ea\u6709\u7ea2\u6846\u4e2d\u8fd9177\u516c\u91cc\u7684\u7ebf\u8def<\/p>\n

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