{"id":47417,"date":"2025-03-14T06:14:26","date_gmt":"2025-03-13T22:14:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.danran1967.com\/?p=47417"},"modified":"2025-03-14T06:14:26","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T22:14:26","slug":"%e7%a7%91%e6%8a%80%e6%97%a5%e6%8a%a5%e6%80%bb%e7%bc%96%e8%be%91%ef%bc%9a%e6%9c%80%e5%a4%a7%e7%9a%84%e7%81%b0%e7%8a%80%e7%89%9b%e6%98%af%e7%a7%91%e5%ad%a6%e7%b2%be%e7%a5%9e%e7%bc%ba%e5%a4%b1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.danran1967.com\/?p=47417","title":{"rendered":"\u79d1\u6280\u65e5\u62a5\u603b\u7f16\u8f91\uff1a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u7070\u7280\u725b\u662f\u79d1\u5b66\u7cbe\u795e\u7f3a\u5931"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\u4f5c\u8005: \u5218\u4e9a\u4e1c<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"item-lead\">\u666e\u904d\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u79d1\u6280\u754c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u6587\u5316\uff0c\u663e\u6027\u7684\u8206\u8bba\u548c\u6f5c\u6027\u7684\u6c1b\u56f4\u4e0d\u9f13\u52b1\u6279\u5224\u8d28\u7591\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6279\u5224\u8d28\u7591\u56fd\u5185\u5916\u540c\u884c\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u52c7\u6c14;\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u53c8\u7f3a\u4e4f\u63a5\u53d7\u4ed6\u4eba\u6279\u5224\u8d28\u7591\u7684\u6c14\u5ea6\u548c\u80f8\u6000\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u8bb2\u7a76\u4e2d\u5eb8\u4e4b\u9053\uff0c\u548c\u4e3a\u8d35\u3002<\/div>\n<div class=\"item-lead neirongzhengwen\">\n<p>\u00a02019\u5e741\u67085\u65e5\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u65e5\u62a5\u7f51\u4e0e\u7f51\u6613\u4f20\u5a92\u5171\u540c\u4e3e\u529e\u7684\u201c2019\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u5cf0\u4f1a\u201d\u5728\u5317\u4eac\u56fd\u8d38\u5927\u9152\u5e97\u53ec\u5f00\u3002\u300a\u7070\u7280\u725b\u300b\u4f5c\u8005\u7c73\u6b47\u5c14\u00b7\u6e25\u514b\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u5de5\u7a0b\u9662\u9662\u58eb\u90ac\u8d3a\u94e8\u7b49\u4f17\u591a\u4e13\u5bb6\u5b66\u8005\u51fa\u5e2d\u672c\u6b21\u5cf0\u4f1a\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8de8\u754c\u5bf9\u8bdd\uff0c\u5171\u540c\u63cf\u7ed8\u521b\u65b0\u3001\u751f\u673a\u3001\u548c\u8c10\u3001\u5171\u8d62\u7684\u672a\u6765\u6837\u8c8c\u3002\u79d1\u6280\u65e5\u62a5\u603b\u7f16\u8f91\u5218\u4e9a\u4e1c\u5728\u5cf0\u4f1a\u4e0a\u505a\u4e86\u9898\u4e3a\u201c\u6279\u5224\u8d28\u7591\u662f\u79d1\u5b66\u7cbe\u795e\u7684\u7cbe\u9ac4\u201d\u7684\u4e3b\u9898\u6f14\u8bb2\u3002\u5168\u6587\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u5973\u58eb\u4eec\u5148\u751f\u4eec\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u4e0a\u5348\u597d:<\/p>\n<p>1997\u5e74\u6211\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5de5\u4f5c\u65f6\uff0c\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5916\u56fd\u8bb0\u8005\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8\u5b89\u6392\u6211\u5230\u4f5b\u7f57\u91cc\u8fbe\u5dde\u7684\u80af\u5c3c\u8fea\u592a\u7a7a\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff0c\u53c2\u89c2\u4e86\u594b\u8fdb\u53f7\u822a\u5929\u98de\u673a\u53d1\u5c04\u3002\u822a\u5929\u98de\u673a\u7684\u5916\u6302\u6db2\u4f53\u71c3\u6599\u7bb1\u7684\u4e24\u4fa7\u5206\u522b\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fa\u4f53\u71c3\u6599\u706b\u7bad\u52a9\u63a8\u5668\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u8ba8\u8bba\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u706b\u7bad\u52a9\u63a8\u5668\u7684\u76f4\u5f84\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5b9a\u662fNASA\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08\u7ecf\u8fc7\u53cd\u590d\u6d4b\u7b97\u540e\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u6700\u79d1\u5b66\u6700\u5408\u7406\u7684\u5c3a\u5bf8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u662f\u7684!\u706b\u7bad\u63a8\u8fdb\u5668\u662f\u5728\u72b9\u4ed6\u5dde\u7684\u5de5\u5382\u751f\u4ea7\u7684\u3002\u4e4b\u540e\u8981\u7528\u706b\u8f66\u4ece\u72b9\u4ed6\u5dde\u5de5\u5382\u8f6c\u8fd0\u5230\u4f5b\u7f57\u91cc\u8fbe\u5dde\u53d1\u5c04\u573a\uff0c\u9014\u4e2d\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e9b\u96a7\u9053\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u96a7\u9053\u7684\u5bbd\u5ea6\u53ea\u6bd4\u706b\u8f66\u8f68\u9053\u7684\u8f68\u8ddd\u5bbd\u4e86\u4e00\u70b9\u70b9\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u706b\u8f66\u8f68\u9053\u7684\u8f68\u8ddd\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u706b\u7bad\u52a9\u63a8\u5668\u76f4\u5f84\u7684\u4e0a\u9650\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u94c1\u8def\u7684\u8f68\u8ddd\u662f1435\u6beb\u7c73\uff0c\u53734.85\u82f1\u5c3a(\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e5f\u662f)\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u94c1\u8def\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08\u6d4b\u7b97\u540e\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/n.sinaimg.cn\/tech\/crawl\/162\/w550h412\/20190107\/vxgm-hrfcctn4009771.jpg\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f!\u539f\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u82f1\u56fd\u7684\u94c1\u8def\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u94c1\u8def\u6700\u65e9\u662f\u7531\u82f1\u56fd\u4eba\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5efa\u9020\u7684\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u662f\u82f1\u56fd\u7684\u94c1\u8def\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08\u6d4b\u7b97\u540e\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u5417?<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd8\u4e0d\u662f!\u539f\u6765\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u7684\u94c1\u8def\u6700\u65e9\u662f\u7531\u9020\u6709\u8f68\u7535\u8f66\u7684\u4eba\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a4.85\u82f1\u5c3a\u6b63\u662f\u7535\u8f66\u8f68\u9053\u6240\u7528\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u3002\u7535\u8f66\u8f68\u9053\u6807\u51c6\u53c8\u662f\u4ece\u54ea\u91cc\u6765\u7684\u5462?<\/p>\n<p>\u539f\u6765\uff0c\u6700\u5148\u9020\u7535\u8f66\u7684\u8001\u54e5\u4ee5\u524d\u662f\u9020\u9a6c\u8f66\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u9020\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f86\u6709\u8f68\u7535\u8f66\u65f6\u6cbf\u7528\u4e86\u9a6c\u8f66\u7684\u8f6e\u8ddd\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\u9a6c\u8f66\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8981\u91c7\u7528\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8f6e\u8ddd\u5462?\u56e0\u4e3a\u53e4\u7f57\u9a6c\u4eba\u9020\u7684\u7f57\u9a6c\u6218\u8f66\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8f6e\u8ddd\uff0c\u5176\u540e\u4e00\u76f4\u5ef6\u88ad\u4e0b\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f60\u80af\u5b9a\u8981\u95ee\uff1a\u7f57\u9a6c\u6218\u8f66\u7684\u8f6e\u8ddd\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f4.85\u82f1\u5c3a?\u7b54\u6848\u662f\u4e2a\u51b7\u7b11\u8bdd\uff1a\u8fd9\u662f\u4e24\u5339\u62c9\u6218\u8f66\u7684\u9a6c\u7684\u5c41\u80a1\u7684\u5bbd\u5ea6!<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u73b0\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u6e05\u695a\u4e86:\u5f53\u4eca\u4eba\u7c7b\u6700\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u7684\u822a\u5929\u8fd0\u8f7d\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u88c5\u7f6e\u7684\u76f4\u5f84\uff0c\u7adf\u7136\u662f\u7531\u4e24\u5343\u5e74\u524d\u53e4\u7f57\u9a6c\u65f6\u671f\u4e24\u5339\u6218\u9a6c\u5c41\u80a1\u7684\u5bbd\u5ea6\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u666e\u904d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u7ba1\u5b83\u53eb\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56(Path-Dependence)\u3002<strong>\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u7684\u6280\u672f\u6f14\u8fdb\u6216\u5236\u5ea6\u53d8\u8fc1\u5747\u6709\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u4e2d\u60ef\u6027\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u652f\u914d\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u4e00\u65e6\u8fdb\u5165\u67d0\u4e00\u8def\u5f84(\u65e0\u8bba\u597d\u574f)\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u8def\u5f84\u4ea7\u751f\u4f9d\u8d56\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u4e00\u65e6\u505a\u51fa\u67d0\u79cd\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u60ef\u6027\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u4f1a\u4f7f\u8fd9\u79cd\u9009\u62e9\u4e0d\u65ad\u81ea\u6211\u5f3a\u5316\uff0c\u597d\u8d70\u4e0a\u4e86\u4e00\u6761\u4e0d\u5f52\u8def\uff0c\u8ba9\u4f60\u8f7b\u6613\u8d70\u4e0d\u51fa\u53bb\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f7f&#8221;\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56&#8221;\u7406\u8bba\u95fb\u540d\u9050\u8fe9\u7684\u4eba\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u9053\u683c\u62c9\u65af\u00b7\u8bfa\u65af\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u7528&#8221;\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56&#8221;\u7406\u8bba\u6210\u529f\u5730\u9610\u91ca\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u6f14\u8fdb\uff0c\u9053\u683c\u62c9\u65af\u00b7\u8bfa\u65af\u4e8e1993\u5e74\u83b7\u5f97\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ece\u4e0a\u9762\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6865\u6bb5\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c<strong>\u4eba\u4eec\u6446\u8131\u8def\u5f84\u4f9d\u8d56\u3001\u51b2\u7834\u7531\u60ef\u6027\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u6761\u6761\u6846\u6846\u662f\u591a\u4e48\u7684\u8270\u96be\uff0c\u53c8\u662f\u591a\u4e48\u7684\u53ef\u8d35\u3002\u8bf7\u8bb0\u4f4f:\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u5408\u7406\uff0c\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u5408\u7406!<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/n.sinaimg.cn\/tech\/crawl\/116\/w550h366\/20190107\/FyyY-hrfcctn4009816.jpg\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u671f\u95f4\u76841941\u5e74\uff0c\u76df\u519b\u603b\u90e8\u79d8\u5bc6\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e00\u4e9b\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u4e13\u95e8\u7814\u7a76\u964d\u4f4e\u519b\u673a\u88ab\u51fb\u843d\u6982\u7387\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5e78\u5b58\u7684\u519b\u673a\u4e2d\uff0c\u673a\u7ffc\u4e2d\u5f39\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u800c\u673a\u8eab\u548c\u673a\u5c3e\u4e2d\u5f39\u5f88\u5c11\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u5efa\u8bae\u52a0\u5f3a\u673a\u7ffc\u90e8\u4f4d\u7684\u9632\u62a4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u4e9a\u62cd\u62c9\u7f55\u00b7\u6c83\u5fb7(Abraham Wald)\u529b\u6392\u4f17\u8bae\u3002\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u2014\u2014\u5e94\u8be5\u52a0\u5f3a\u5f39\u75d5\u8f83\u5c11\u7684\u673a\u8eab\u548c\u673a\u5c3e\u90e8\u4f4d\u7684\u9632\u62a4\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90e8\u4f4d\u53d7\u5230\u91cd\u521b\u7684\u519b\u673a\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u5f88\u5c11\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u8fd4\u822a\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u6570\u636e\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u6c83\u5fb7\u6559\u6388\u662f\u5bf9\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u5e78\u5b58\u8005\u504f\u5dee(Survivorship bias)\u201d\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u6765\u6e90\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u4f46\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5316\u7684\u7248\u672c\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u964d\u4f4e\u519b\u673a\u88ab\u51fb\u843d\u6982\u7387\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6c83\u5fb7\u6559\u6388\u5148\u540e\u63d0\u4ea4\u4e86\u516b\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e3b\u8bba\u6587\u957f\u8fbe80\u591a\u9875\u3002\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u4ed6\u662f\u5bf9\u76f8\u5173\u95ee\u9898\u505a\u4e86\u4e25\u5bc6\u3001\u4e25\u8c28\u7684\u5206\u6790\u540e\u624d\u5f97\u51fa\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba!<\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u822c\u8bf4\u6765\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u628a\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u80fd\u591f\u98de\u56de\u6765\u7684\u98de\u673a\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u7565\u90a3\u4e9b\u6ca1\u80fd\u98de\u56de\u6765\u7684\u98de\u673a\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u65e0\u6cd5\u505a\u51fa\u6700\u63a5\u8fd1\u771f\u76f8\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u80fd\u591f\u5173\u6ce8\u5230\u201c\u5e78\u5b58\u8005\u201d\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u201c\u9047\u96be\u8005\u201d\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u79cd\u6279\u5224\u6027\u601d\u7ef4\u3002<strong>\u6279\u5224\u6027\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u8d77\u70b9\u662f\u8d28\u7591\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u8d28\u7591\u5c31\u6ca1\u6709\u6279\u5224\u3002\u4f46\u8d28\u7591\u4e0d\u662f\u6000\u7591\u4e00\u5207\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u5bf9\u79d1\u5b66\u89c4\u5f8b\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u5b8c\u6574\u628a\u63e1\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728\u6b63\u5e38\u4e2d\u53d1\u73b0\u53cd\u5e38\uff0c\u5728\u5929\u7ecf\u5730\u4e49\u4e2d\u53d1\u73b0\u5927\u8c2c\u4e0d\u7136\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6279\u5224\u6027\u601d\u7ef4(Critical Thinking)\u7684\u8d77\u6e90\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ffd\u6eaf\u52302500\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u53e4\u5e0c\u814a\u601d\u60f3\u5bb6\u82cf\u683c\u62c9\u5e95\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e00\u5207\u77e5\u8bc6\u5747\u4ece\u7591\u96be\u4e2d\u4ea7\u751f\u3002\u82cf\u683c\u62c9\u5e95\u7684\u6279\u5224\u6027\u601d\u7ef4\u5b9e\u8df5\uff0c\u88ab\u540e\u6765\u4f17\u591a\u5b66\u8005\u6240\u4f20\u627f\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5c31\u5305\u62ec\u8bb0\u5f55\u5176\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u67cf\u62c9\u56fe\u3001\u4e9a\u91cc\u58eb\u591a\u5fb7\u7b49\u4eba\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b66\u8005\u90fd\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u6240\u770b\u5230\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u4e0e\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u901a\u5e38\u90fd\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u5dee\u522b\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u53d7\u8fc7\u4e13\u95e8\u601d\u7ef4\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684\u4eba\u624d\u80fd\u900f\u8fc7\u865a\u5047\u7684\u8868\u9762\u770b\u5230\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa40\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7b49\u8bb8\u591a\u897f\u65b9\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5305\u62ec\u83f2\u5f8b\u5bbe\u3001\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e00\u4e9b\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u90fd\u628a\u6279\u5224\u6027\u601d\u7ef4\u786e\u7acb\u4e3a\u6559\u80b2\u7279\u522b\u662f\u9ad8\u7b49\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8bf4\u8d77\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5bb9\u6613\u628a\u5b83\u7406\u89e3\u6210\u79d1\u5b66\u77e5\u8bc6\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5b83\u8fd8\u5305\u62ec\u79d1\u5b66\u6001\u5ea6\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u601d\u60f3\u548c\u79d1\u5b66\u7cbe\u795e\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u7cbe\u795e\u662f\u7edf\u9886\uff0c\u662f\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u79d1\u5b66\u77e5\u8bc6\u4e2d\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u548c\u7406\u5ff5\u3002\u79d1\u5b66\u7cbe\u795e\u8fdc\u6bd4\u79d1\u5b66\u77e5\u8bc6\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u4f60\u5b66\u5230\u4e86\u79d1\u5b66\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u62e5\u6709\u79d1\u5b66\u7cbe\u795e;\u800c\u4f60\u62e5\u6709\u4e86\u79d1\u5b66\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u5c31\u4e00\u5b9a\u80fd\u638c\u63e1\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u77e5\u8bc6\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/n.sinaimg.cn\/tech\/crawl\/110\/w550h360\/20190107\/_5eM-hrfcctn4009858.jpg\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u79d1\u5b66\u7cbe\u795e\u7684\u5185\u6db5\u662f\u5341\u5206\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u6279\u5224\u8d28\u7591\uff0c\u6c42\u771f\u52a1\u5b9e\uff0c\u4e0d\u61c8\u63a2\u7d22\uff0c\u52c7\u4e8e\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u517c\u5bb9\u5e76\u84c4\uff0c\u5bbd\u5bb9\u5931\u8d25\u2026\u2026\u800c\u5176\u7cbe\u9ad3\u662f\u6279\u5224\u8d28\u7591\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u5d07\u5c1a\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u5374\u4e0d\u5e94\u8ff7\u4fe1\u79d1\u5b66\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0d\u662f\u4e07\u80fd\u7684\u3002<\/strong>\u6709\u4eba\u8bf4\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u8ba4\u8bc6\u81ea\u7136\u7684\u4e00\u76cf\u660e\u706f\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u8bf4\u6cd5\u633a\u597d\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u786e\u5207\u3002\u5728\u6211\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u662f\u9ed1\u6697\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u53ea\u87a2\u706b\u866b\u3002\u5176\u4eae\u5149\u867d\u7136\u53ef\u8d35\uff0c\u4f46\u7167\u4eae\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u6781\u5176\u6709\u9650\u3002\u9762\u5bf9\u65e0\u7a77\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u5965\u79d8\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u5e38\u5e38\u50cf\u4e2a\u4e00\u8138\u832b\u7136\u3001\u4e0d\u77e5\u6240\u63aa\u7684\u5b66\u7ae5\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u603b\u662f\u6709\u90a3\u4e48\u591a\u672a\u77e5\u4e8b\u7269\u8d85\u51fa\u4e86\u79d1\u5b66\u63a2\u7d22\u7684\u529b\u6240\u80fd\u53ca\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u73b0\u4ee3\u5b87\u5b99\u5b66\u4e2d\u6700\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u201c\u5927\u7206\u70b8\u7406\u8bba\u201d\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff1a\u5b87\u5b99\u662f\u7531\u4e00\u4e2a\u81f4\u5bc6\u70bd\u70ed\u7684\u5947\u70b9\u4e8e137\u4ebf\u5e74\u524d\u4e00\u6b21\u5927\u7206\u70b8\u540e\u81a8\u80c0\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u5927\u7206\u70b8\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48?\u518d\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u6570\u5b66\u91cc\u65e0\u7a77\u5927\u548c\u65e0\u7a77\u5c0f\u6240\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u8868\u8c61\u5982\u4f55\u5c55\u73b0?\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8bb8\u591a\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u90fd\u56de\u7b54\u4e0d\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u4e00\u8d2f\u6b63\u786e\u3002<\/strong>\u79d1\u5b66\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6700\u5927\u7279\u70b9\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u5426\u5b9a\u4e2d\u524d\u884c\u3002\u79d1\u5b66\u53f2\u4e0a\u90a3\u4e9b\u5bcc\u4e3d\u5802\u7687\u7684\u5927\u53a6\u65e0\u4e0d\u5728\u4e00\u5ea7\u5ea7\u5e9f\u589f\u4e0a\u62d4\u5730\u800c\u8d77\u3002\u4ece\u5730\u5fc3\u8bf4\u5230\u65e5\u5fc3\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ece\u725b\u987f\u7ecf\u5178\u529b\u5b66\u5230\u7231\u56e0\u65af\u5766\u76f8\u5bf9\u8bba\uff0c\u518d\u5230\u91cf\u5b50\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u79cd\u91cd\u5927\u79d1\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u8bde\u751f\u90fd\u4e0d\u662f\u6c34\u5230\u6e20\u6210\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u6f14\u8fdb\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u65b0\u7406\u8bba\u5bf9\u65e7\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u98a0\u8986\u548c\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u5e38\u5e38\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u5bf9\u6297\u548c\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u751a\u81f3\u4e3a\u6b64\u4ed8\u51fa\u4e86\u751f\u547d\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u79d1\u5b66\u53d1\u73b0\u5f80\u5f80\u90fd\u662f\u6311\u6218\u5df2\u77e5\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7b26\u5408\u4f20\u7edf\u903b\u8f91\uff0c\u5f15\u8d77\u4e89\u8bae\u548c\u975e\u8bae\u662f\u5fc5\u7136\u7684\u3002\u79d1\u5b66\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u6587\u660e\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u5bf9\u771f\u7406\u548c\u771f\u76f8\u6c38\u65e0\u6b62\u5883\u7684\u8ffd\u6c42\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4e00\u523b\u4e5f\u79bb\u4e0d\u5f00\u6279\u5224\u8d28\u7591\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4f46\u666e\u904d\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u79d1\u6280\u754c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u6587\u5316\uff0c\u663e\u6027\u7684\u8206\u8bba\u548c\u6f5c\u6027\u7684\u6c1b\u56f4\u4e0d\u9f13\u52b1\u6279\u5224\u8d28\u7591\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6279\u5224\u8d28\u7591\u56fd\u5185\u5916\u540c\u884c\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u52c7\u6c14;\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u53c8\u7f3a\u4e4f\u63a5\u53d7\u4ed6\u4eba\u6279\u5224\u8d28\u7591\u7684\u6c14\u5ea6\u548c\u80f8\u6000\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u8bb2\u7a76\u4e2d\u5eb8\u4e4b\u9053\uff0c\u548c\u4e3a\u8d35\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u3000\u636e\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5f88\u591a\u6210\u679c\u9274\u5b9a\u4f1a\u6216\u8bc4\u5ba1\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e13\u5bb6\u4eec\u6240\u80fd\u8868\u793a\u7684\u6700\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u6001\u5ea6\u5c31\u662f\u6c89\u9ed8\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f97\u7ed9\u4eba\u5bb6\u7559\u9762\u5b50\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u6495\u7834\u8138\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f97\u7f6a\u4eba\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u4f20\u7edf\u6587\u5316\u6d88\u6781\u7684\u4e00\u9762\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u5341\u5206\u4e0d\u5229\u4e8e\u79d1\u5b66\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\uff0c\u5b83\u5bf9\u79d1\u5b66\u53d1\u5c55\u4f1a\u8d77\u5230\u6781\u5927\u7684\u963b\u788d\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4ee5\u6279\u5224\u8d28\u7591\u4e3a\u7cbe\u9ad3\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u7cbe\u795e\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u8f6f\u5b9e\u529b\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4f53\u73b0\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6587\u5316\u521b\u9020\u548c\u6587\u5316\u8fdb\u6b65\u5e94\u8be5\u5305\u62ec\u5927\u529b\u5f18\u626c\u79d1\u5b66\u7cbe\u795e\u3002\u5f18\u626c\u79d1\u5b66\u7cbe\u795e\u5bf9\u4e8e\u52a0\u5f3a\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u5efa\u8bbe\u548c\u601d\u60f3\u6587\u5316\u5efa\u8bbe\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u6216\u7f3a\u7684\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u5f53\u5145\u5206\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5f18\u626c\u79d1\u5b66\u7cbe\u795e\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u3001\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3001\u8270\u5de8\u6027\u548c\u957f\u671f\u6027\u3002<\/strong>\u4eca\u5e74\u662f\u4e94\u56db\u8fd0\u52a8\u66b4\u53d1\u4e00\u767e\u5468\u5e74\u3002\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u53e4\u8001\u7684\u5927\u5730\u4e0a\uff0c\u5bf9\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u547c\u5524\u5df2\u7ecf\u56de\u8361\u4e86\u6574\u6574\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u9ad8\u9ad8\u5730\u4e3e\u8d77\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u5927\u65d7\uff0c\u5f18\u626c\u79d1\u5b66\u7cbe\u795e\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u79d1\u5b66\u4e8b\u4e1a\u624d\u80fd\u8d70\u5411\u5149\u660e\u7684\u672a\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8c22\u8c22\u5927\u5bb6!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4f5c\u8005: \u5218\u4e9a\u4e1c \u666e\u904d\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u79d1\u6280\u754c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u6587\u5316\uff0c\u663e\u6027\u7684\u8206\u8bba\u548c\u6f5c\u6027\u7684\u6c1b\u56f4\u4e0d\u9f13\u52b1\u6279\u5224\u8d28\u7591\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u79d1 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[13],"tags":[15089,15087,15090,15088],"views":221,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.danran1967.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47417"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.danran1967.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.danran1967.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.danran1967.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.danran1967.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=47417"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.danran1967.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47417\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":49488,"href":"https:\/\/www.danran1967.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47417\/revisions\/49488"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.danran1967.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=47417"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.danran1967.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=47417"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.danran1967.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=47417"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}